Coffee News Recap, 9 Oct: Arabica passes US$3/lb on stronger real, Costa returns to profitability with matcha and iced drinks & other stories

Every Friday, Perfect Daily Grind rounds up the top coffee industry news from the week. 

Editor’s note

Arabica prices climbed to their highest levels since early September this week, surpassing US$3/lb as the Brazilian real reached a near five-month high against the US dollar. Because a stronger real reduces their short-term earnings, producers often hold onto their coffee rather than selling it immediately. In addition, traders fear El Niño could threaten the country’s 2027 crop, as flowering begins amid lower rainfall in Minas Gerais.

Gains are likely to be temporary, though. Brazil expects a record 2026/27 crop, and recent figures from Secex (Brazil’s Secretariat of Foreign Trade) show that the country’s green coffee exports totalled 3.93 million bags last month – the highest level in the last 20 months and up 20.4% from September 2025.

Meanwhile, on the consumption side, Costa Coffee has returned to operating profit after refitting its stores and broadening its menu. Revenue grew 5% to £1.3bn, and CEO Philippe Schaillee credits iced coffees, matcha, ube, and lower-calorie options with driving growth.

Even so, statutory profit fell 7% to £62m, and Greggs has overtaken Costa as the UK’s largest branded coffee outlet, with 2,737 locations against 2,707.

The broader lesson is that major chains now depend less on coffee itself for growth. At the same time, value-led rivals now compete directly for the same customers.

Top stories of the week

• Mon, 5 Oct – Matcha and iced drinks help Costa Coffee return to profitability. The chain opened 50 new outlets in the UK over the past year, with 50 more planned for 2027, including drive-thru and high street locations. Costa closed 2025 with operating profit of £20m, after posting losses of £13.5m and £5.8m in the two previous financial years. Revenue grew by 5% to £1.3bn, compared with the 1% increase recorded in the 2024 financial year. (London, UK)

• Tue, 6 Oct – Stronger Brazilian real pushes arabica above US$3/lb for first time since early September. Coffee prices gave up early gains on Wednesday and closed sharply lower. Traders sold off long positions after Brazil’s Trade Ministry reported that September coffee exports rose more than 20% year on year to 236,000 tonnes. However, concerns that El Niño could damage Brazil’s coffee crop next year continue to support prices. The US Climate Prediction Center said the El Niño that formed across the equatorial Pacific in June will likely be one of the strongest in more than 75 years. (New York City, New York, US)

• Tue, 6 Oct – Starbucks reportedly considering merger with Chipotle. Speculation has grown that Chipotle Mexican Grill and Starbucks could merge and operate similarly to Yum! Brands, which owns KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell. The talk follows Chipotle’s decision to hire bankers to defend itself against potential takeover bids. Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol knows both businesses well, having served as Chipotle’s CEO from 2018 until he joined Starbucks in 2024. Before that, Niccol spent more than a decade at Yum! Brands. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Wed, 7 Oct – Germany’s coffee sector is worth €70.2bn; over a third of Europe’s coffee enters via German ports. According to the new “Economic Impact of Coffee in Europe” study, around 1.01 million tonnes of coffee passed through Germany in 2025. The study estimates that German roasters produced about 517,000 tonnes of roasted coffee, or 27.3% of Europe’s total output. The sector generates €36.6bn in direct economic value, while suppliers and service providers contribute a further €33.6bn. (Hamburg, Germany)

• Wed, 7 Oct – Blank Street UK grew annual turnover by 71% to £58.9m. Operating profit increased almost threefold to £4.6m. Stronger demand at existing stores, driven by new signature and seasonal drinks across matcha and coffee menus, led growth, with matcha continuing to lift afternoon sales. (London, UK)

• Thu, 8 Oct – Volunteer applications open for PRF Mexico. Successful applicants receive free entry to the two-day event, taking place on 18 & 19 March 2027 in Chiapas, the opportunity to participate in competitions, a cupping session where they can showcase their coffees, and exclusive networking opportunities. You can apply here. (Chiapas, Mexico)

• Fri, 9 Oct – Coca-Cola reportedly reconsidering Costa Coffee sale. Coca-Cola bought Costa for £3.9bn in 2018, and the chain lost almost £20m across 2023 and 2024 combined. The company tried to sell Costa earlier this year, but potential buyers failed to meet its asking price. (London, UK)

• Fri, 9 Oct – Global Coffee Awards hosts Compete With a Purpose: Building Your GCA Strategy webinar. The webinar explored how prospective competitors can turn objectives into a clear participation strategy, from evaluating coffees and choosing categories to thinking about resources and overall approach. Andy Sprenger, founder of Sweet Bloom Coffee and US & Canada’s Best Roaster 2026, also shared his approach and experience competing in the Global Coffee Awards.

• Fri, 9 Oct – Major coffee brands agree to launch Coffee Sector Guidance for Responsible Procurement. Eighteen companies, including Ecom, illy, JDE Peet’s, Nestlé, Neumann Kaffee Gruppe, OFI, Sucafina, Taylors of Harrogate, Touton, UCC, and Volcafe, have agreed to champion the joint development of the Sector Guidance. The initiative aims to create a practical framework to define and encourage the adoption of responsible procurement practices that support farmer prosperity and supply chain resilience. (Geneva, Switzerland)

Industry news

• Mon, 5 Oct – Nespresso discontinues compostable paper capsules, shifts strategy to aluminum recycling. Nespresso has discontinued its compostable paper coffee capsules after three years on sale, following a three-year development period, citing problems with storage and user experience. The capsules, made from 82% paper and tested in 14 European markets, needed using within four weeks of opening the pack, whereas the aluminium versions last up to a year. (Vevey, Switzerland)

• Mon, 5 Oct – Starbucks loses bid to dismiss workers’ union trademark infringement suit. A federal judge in Pennsylvania has rejected Starbucks’ request to dismiss a lawsuit from Workers United, the union representing its baristas. The union brought the case in response to Starbucks’ trademark infringement claims, asking the court to confirm it can use the name “Starbucks Workers United” alongside a version of the company’s logo featuring a raised fist. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Tue, 6 Oct – Nestlé and NBA enter multi-year international marketing partnership. Nestlé’s Milo, Nescau, and Nesquik brands will become official partners of the NBA from 1 January 2027, covering 21 markets across four continents. The deal is Nestlé’s largest international partnership to date. It also reflects the company’s strategy of concentrating on fewer, larger global marketing platforms that it can use consistently across different markets. (Vevey, Switzerland)

• Tue, 6 Oct – Starbucks sued for claiming eight protein drinks as sugar-free. The chain faces a class-action suit from consumers for falsely advertising eight protein beverages as “sugar-free” because they contain lactose, the natural sugar present in milk. US Federal Law prevents companies from using “sugar-free” to describe beverages containing more than 0.5g sugar per 12-ounce serving. (Seattle, Washington, US)

• Wed, 7 Oct – Costa Coffee warns of rising prices as climate change drives up costs. Costa’s latest accounts show the company is dealing with high wholesale prices. Its management warned that climate change could reduce both the quality and quantity of coffee available, limiting the supply of the beans it needs. They added that political and economic instability could also disrupt exports and the supply of raw materials. (London, UK)

• Thu, 8 Oct – Belgian chain IzyCoffee closes five stores as costs rise. The chain began as a coffee truck in 2018 and quickly expanded to 20 shops, but it will now reduce its estate to 11 locations. The company says around 85% of its staff will keep their jobs. (Izegem, Belgium)

• Fri, 9 Oct – Mega Coffee opens flagship store in Cambodia. The chain, which operates more than 4,500 stores in South Korea, opened the 845 sq m flagship store in Phnom Penh’s Koh Pich. A master franchise deal targets a total of five stores by the end of 2026. (Seoul, South Korea)

Businesses for sale

New launch

• Mon, 5 Oct – The Coorg Coffee Club and Coffee Island collaborate to launch the Origin Box. To mark International Coffee Day, India’s Coorg Coffee Club has partnered with Greek chain Coffee Island to launch the Origin Box. The box contains five specialty coffees from five Coorg estates, each named after its estate and grower, and covers three coffee species: arabica, canephora, and excelsa. It is now available in more than 400 Coffee Island stores across Greece and Cyprus. (Athens, Greece)

• Tue, 6 Oct – Nuova Simonelli launches integrated workstation, combining espresso prep, grinding, and automatic tamping. The complete coffee workstation combines the Appia Viva espresso machine, the Viva Grinder with C-Automation technology, and the PUQ Press M9 tamper. PUQ Press created the M9 exclusively for Nuova Simonelli, and it integrates directly with the Viva Grinder to make the workflow more efficient. The company designed the three machines to work together as a single station, balancing performance with visual appeal. (Milan, Italy)

• Wed, 7 Oct – Colombian coffee roaster Devoción launches Impact Fund. The company will direct 1% of sales from every retail bag of coffee it sells in its shops and online, across the US and Colombia, to support coffee producers, young people in New York City, and the ecosystems of coffee-growing regions. (New York City, New York, US)

• Thu, 8 Oct – Nikisha Bailey, the former co-founder and CEO of WinWin Coffee, has teamed up with philanthropist Natalie Carless to launch Defiant Coffee Co. Nikisha and Natalie describe the business as a model for ethical sourcing, authentic storytelling, and equity, built around the shared language of coffee, culture, and community. (Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US)

• Thu, 8 Oct – La Marzocco collaborates with Rains to launch new waterproof apron for baristas. Danish brand Rains and La Marzocco have launched a waterproof apron for baristas who spend long shifts behind the bar. The apron uses Rains’ Scandinavian waterproof design and an easy-to-clean fabric, with an adjustable fit that allows baristas to move freely throughout the day. (Florence, Italy)

• Fri, 9 Oct – Ceado launches new visual expression and language Flavor as Perception. The new branding was developed in collaboration with Emo Design, Ceado’s long-term partner in product design. The project stems from a shared exploration of how to translate flavour perception into communication. The visual language translates the perceptual nature of flavour through moving forms, blending colours, shifting dimensions, and softer boundaries. (Venice, Italy)

Milestone

• Fri, 9 Oct – Global Coffee Platform celebrates tenth anniversary in Geneva. The GCP10 Anniversary Celebration, held at the International Conference Centre Geneva (CICG), centred on the theme “Ten Years, One Vision – Prosperity Starts at Origin”, convening over 200 global leaders in the coffee sector. (Geneva, Switzerland)

Trade & production

Research

• Wed, 7 Oct – US lender Homegrown publishes Brick & Mortar 2036 Report, outlining 11 trends it expects to shape physical retail and hospitality over the next decade. The report highlights quality, AI agents, staff profit-sharing, smaller sites, subscriptions, and automation as key to survival, citing examples from Panera, Pret, and Sweetgreen. The report comes after an estimated 8,171 restaurants closed across the US and Canada in the first half of 2026. (Atlanta, Georgia, US)

Events & competitions

• Mon, 5 Oct – ICO’s Coffee Public-Private Task Force, Session 3, brought together private companies, international organisations, and coffee-producing countries. The Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO) joined coffee value chain leaders in Geneva for the 8th CEOs & Global Leaders Forum of the International Coffee Organisation (ICO), contributing to a session on how collective data initiatives can strengthen due diligence and create wider value for the coffee sector. The session looked at data gaps and practical challenges in areas such as land use, legality, human rights, forced and child labour, and income, and at how global initiatives can connect with national systems. (Geneva, Switzerland)

• Tue, 6 Oct – The SCAJ World Specialty Coffee Conference and Exhibition 2026 to be held from 14 to 17 October. This year’s theme, Brew The Future, focuses on how technological change such as AI adoption and automation could reshape the coffee industry in the face of labour shortages, climate change, and rising prices. Event features will include the Japan Barista, Cup Tasters, and Brewers Championships, the Japan Hand Drip Championship, the Japan Siphonist Championship and the World Siphonist Championship, the Coffee Village, and cuppings. (Tokyo, Japan)

• Wed, 7 Oct – Coffee Fest Dallas-Fort Worth to take place on 17 & 18 October. Attendees can take part in more than 50 free seminars and panel discussions, as well as paid workshops and hands-on training sessions. The programme also includes dedicated areas such as the Roasting Hub, Cupping Corner, Latte Art Venue (hosting the LAWCO competition), Conversation Corner, and Tech Lab. (Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas, US)

• Wed, 7 Oct – The ASEAN International Coffee Summit 2026 scheduled for 4 to 6 November. Designed as a platform for collaboration, exchange, and growth, the Summit will welcome over 1,500 delegates and is supported by more than 20 international coffee associations. Anchored on the theme “From Origin to Opportunity: Connecting Global Standards, Trade and Knowledge” the summit connects stakeholders across the entire value chain. (Singapore)

• Thu, 8 Oct – Ugandan coffee takes the stage at the 17th Swiss Coffee Trade Association Forum and Dinner. Uganda has restated its aim to build a globally competitive coffee sector, setting out plans to increase production, raise quality, strengthen traceability and sustainability, add more value locally, and expand access to international markets. The country made the commitment during its first appearance at the 17th Swiss Coffee Trade Association (SCTA) Forum and Dinner. The SCTA welcomed a Ugandan delegation led by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Uganda’s Permanent Mission in Geneva. (Montreux, Switzerland)

• Fri, 9 Oct – The Ecuador Coffee Masters final to be held on 14 November. The event will feature special guests such as Jorge Chanis, founder of La Cosecha; Felipe Aliaga, co-creator of Ciclos Café; and Bruno Campos and Mario Salas, co-founders of Café Bocanegra, who will also visit the coffee region of Pallatanga, Chimborazo, and take a gastronomic tour of the city. (Guayaquil, Ecuador)

Photo credits: La Marzocco

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